Mark Whistler is the founder of www.WallStreetRockStar.com and is the author of multiple books on trading. Mark's newest book, The Swing Trader's Bible - co-authored with CNBC/Fox News regular guest Matt McCall - will be on shelves in late summer, 2008. In addition, Mark also writes regularly for TraderDaily.com and Investopedia.com.
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1. Non-Farm Payrolls Drop
The News
In April non-farm payrolls declined in all four U.S. regions, showing significant trouble regarding employment conditions within the U.S.
The Breakdown
Within the report, 28 states showed month over month unemployment decreases - with 35 U.S. states showing unemployment up for the year.
The largest declines came from the East North Central (-47.0), the West North Central (-16.9), the South Atlantic (-53.1) and the East South Central (-16.3).
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment by state is:
The Bottom Line
Overall rising unemployment is not a good sign for the U.S. dollar - and is much of the reason for the greenback's losses - across the board - Friday morning.
2. Residential Construction Rebounds
The News
In April, housing starts unexpectedly rebounded and could be signaling a bottom (finally) for U.S. real estate markets.
The Breakdown
Within the report, one of the most staggering numbers was the 40.5% in multifamily housing starts, while single-family starts declined.
Slightly worrisome, single-family starts are now at the lowest level seen in over 15 years.
Overall though, because of the massive surge in multifamily starts, the index increased 1.032 in April, presenting an 8.2% gain month over month. At the same time, housing starts are still 30.6% this time last year.
The Bottom Line
The U.S. real estate markets are not out of the woods yet, however, today's report was a big step in a positive direction, something the market will surely rejoice about.
Unfortunately, the housing start numbers will likely not be enough to buoy the dismal employment numbers, though once the dust settles, analysts will likely realize that a rebound in housing will eventually aid unemployment numbers as more and more construction workers return to jobs.
3. Crude Moving Higher - Again -
The News
At last glance, oil was trading at $126.13 per barrel, attempting to edge higher for a late week breakout.
The Breakdown
The speculator exuberance story is still holding strong, with oil now trying to post new highs, yet again. Much of the increase is due to the lack of production increases from Saudi Arabia - ahead of the U.S. driving season.
OPEC does not believe there is enough global demand for oil - at present - to warrant increasing production.
The Bottom Line
Oil is truly in a speculative bubble right now - with the market standing off against OPEC's notions that global demand is waning. Oil will likely not breakdown from present levels until something gives, which will most likely be some sort of production oriented comments from OPEC. For the mean time though, traders will likely want to think "higher" in regard to oil prices.
