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Tony Saliba
Due to Tony Saliba's commitments in launching a new hedge fund, he will no longer be writing this column. Tony has provided outstanding options commentary for some time, and we hope you have
benefitted from it. (more)
 Tony Saliba
The main thing to be aware of this week and next is that the propaganda machine will go into overdrive, exhorting investors to "put their money to work," "we can't possibly go down four years in a row," etc., etc. I would counsel caution. If someone put a gun to my head and forced me to make a market call for 2003, I would say unchanged, with volatility going much lower. That doesn't mean we won't have periods of extreme rock-n-roll like June/July, September, October/November/December of this y (more)
Tony Saliba
In a thin market environment such as we have now, the North Koreans are the news. This morning they expelled the remaining inspectors from the UN International Atomic Energy Agency. Whether or not this is just more posturing in a high-stakes poker game, or they have really gone looney tunes, we don't yet know. What is clear is that North K (more)
Tony Saliba
The market is set to open lower this morning. The driving stories are: Weaker than expected same-store sales out of Wal-Mart [WMT|WMT], Federated Department Stores (FD) and Citigroup (C) taking a fourth-quarter charge of $1.5B to settle the equity research charges and related lawsuits, and McDonalds (M (more)
Tony Saliba
We've got a higher opening this morning, attributed to positive comments made by Greenspan yesterday after the close. "An easing of global tensions would spur robust economic growth," said Herr Bubblemeister. Anyway, (more)
Tony Saliba
Red ink on the screen this morning on the back of Micron's (MU) poor earnings report last night. Earnings came in at -.52 versus an expected -.23 (although one-time charges have totally muddied the water here), but revenues were off sharply, and the stock is down over $2.00 right (more)
Tony Saliba
The market has flipped higher after a weak Asian session on the back of takeover news in the European banking sector. Credit Agricole SA agreed to buy Credit Lyonnais for about 19.5 billion euros, or 56 euros a share, in cash and stock. That's 6.2 percent more than Friday's close of 52.75 euros. In Italy, Banca (more)
Tony Saliba
We have the University of Michigan numbers around 08:45 CST, and that could be a market mover. It is expected to come in at 85. The stage clearly belongs to gold/the dollar today, and what the market does will be dictated by what the dollar/gold does. So look for the old "inverse trade" where the market and gold m (more)
Tony Saliba
UAL files Chapter 11 -- no big shock there, but some downgrades of key names have the futures on the defensive early this morning. IBM, Emulex (ELX) and Qualcomm (QCOM) all received downgrades this morning. Currently, DJI futures are down 81.0 points, S&P futures are 8.60 lower, and Nasdaq 100 futures (more)
Tony Saliba
Well, so much for the improving jobs market. November non-farm payrolls came in much worse than expected at -40K versus an expected +35K, and the headline rate jumped to 6.0% versus an expected 5.8%. For a market that was already back on its heels, this is a shove over the cliff, and futures are sharply lower. (more)
Tony Saliba
The market once again looks set to open lower
(Hewlett-Packard, Disney, cut forecasts), and I don't think
Q3 (more)
Tony Saliba
Hopefully everyone out there recognizes this for what it is. Two straight months of rally in the market -- not unusual at this time of year -- and now the "upgrades" start to roll in in the big-cap tech names. Get it? They want you to take it off their hands -- don't. (more)
Tony Saliba
No doubt many of you were wondering -- as I was -- what the heck was going on with the VIX index Wednesday afternoon. It went streaking higher late in the day which seemed highly unusual given the market was up huge. I had a lot of thoughts running through my mind: Terrorists buying puts ahead of some attacks on Thursday and Friday? Firms buying puts knowing they had pushed stocks to ridiculous levels? Well, it turned out that a very large short was being f (more)
Tony Saliba
The market is set to open higher this morning on the back of good economic data, and some happy-talk from Novellus Systems (NVLS). Initial jobless claims came in better than expected at 364k versus an expected 383k, while personal income and personal spending came in up 1.0% and up 0.4% respectively, b (more)
Tony Saliba
This week will probably provide several examples of why knowing when not to trade can be the trader's greatest weapon. The intermediate trend is up, the markets will be slow, and volatility is declining rapidly. Other than waiting in ambush for previously conceived positions, profit taking or some light daytrading, th (more)
Tony Saliba
I think we need to sit back and watch for the test of the resistance levels that were taken out yesterday, we should get a check of those levels soon, and take a shot from the long side there with tight stops. (more)
Tony Saliba
It feels like we have another non-event on our hands today, but I am beginning to get that feeling that the snowball might be starting to roll downhill again. Dollar strength late yesterday indicates that the FX market is beginning to focus on European rate cuts next month, but it doesn't seem to be on the radar of the equity markets just yet. We could see a sharp sell off in h (more)
Tony Saliba
The market is set to open better this morning, although I don't see any news to explain why, except for possibly strength in Europe. This is going to be a slow week on the economic front and the earnings front, so the market will have to "do its own thing." As I commented Friday, this is beginning to feel a lot like last year when the market went into a relentless drift-up mode into the end of the year while the usual suspects hyped the heck out of it. The first thing you want (more)
Tony Saliba
Remember, it is expiration day, which can make things quite volatile, and don't be surprised if we have a weak morning followed by an afternoon "mystery" ramp job. If the market gets hit this morning, I'll be sniffing for some cheap ($.10 -.15) November calls for a punt. (more)
Tony Saliba
There are no economic reports out today, but Herr Bubblemeister will be testifying to the Joint Economic Committee at 09:00 CST, keep your eyes out for that one. It will be interesting to hear why he thought 50bp was necessary last week. On the corporate front, Wal-Mart came in a penny better than expected, but w (more)
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