When I penned those words on Jan 23, GOOGLE stock closed at $427. I
mention this because I cannot begin to tell you how many emails I received
on what I said. Well...looks like value does count as GOOGLE imploded on
its less-than-expected earning's report. GOOGLE has now broke down on an
intermediate-term basis. The problem is simple: everybody has loved it, everybody
has owned it...and when things go south, there is no one left to buy. And
by the way, I have not seen that &%*&%# who went on bubblevision with his
$2,000 price target for GOOGLE...which marked the recent top.
Before I get into the market, I want to talk about froth and speculation.
In the past week, I have seen a ton of low priced crud barreling to the
upside. The stars of the week were anything with the word "China" attached
to it. For instance, CTDC moved from $3 to $14 in days before backing off
to $9. The company has no revenues. Unfortunately, they are being kicked
off the NASDAQ on Monday because of a lack of financials. Ladies and
gentleman, it is this kind of manic speculation where everyone piles on at
any price that destroy wealth. This type of froth does not usually happen
at bottoms.
A near-term top was put in on Wednesday. This should be no surprise as we
have thought a correction was in store. Even as the markets bounced up
recently, leadership has been contracting. Furthermore, while the small
and mid-cap indices were moving to new highs, large cap indices lagged
badly. This report has given you a list of famous mega-caps that are
toast. It is these type of divergences that we have always told you to be
wary of. So here are some important areas and levels to watch for.
The NDX has sliced badly through its 50 day average and is now
already below near-term support. More important support lies at 1633.
The NASDAQ has inched below its 50 day average and will need to hold
near-term support at 2241. The NDX is much weaker than the NASDAQ at
this juncture.
The DOW remains the weakest of the major indices but if the market goes
on the defensive, it will start to hold up better than the rest.
Remember, the DOW will always lag in bull markets but will hold up
better in bear markets. It is below the 50 day with important support at
10,661.
The S&P is back below the 50 day and has near-term support at 1259. More
important (and I consider vital) support is at 1245.
OILS are finally obliging my thoughts. They have become overloved,
overowned and extended. They have also had quite a run in the month of
January. This pullback is about as normal as can be considering the
extended condition. Let them come to you. They are still in bull mode for
the most part.
This also now goes for all the COMMODITY groups. They have all become very
extended and need to revert to the norm. How does this occur? By pulling
back into support or moving averages. This includes GOLD, SILVER, COPPER,
ALUMINUM and anything else that comes under this umbrella. These areas are
also in bull mode...just may need some rest.
HOUSING is just getting smoked here. I don't see anyone arguing with me on
TV anymore. I believe a longer-term top has been put in for HOUSING
stocks...but near-term...are oversold and look ready to bounce.
The TRANSPORTS remain in fine shape. In fact, it is the strongest of the
major indices and has shown no trouble as of yet.
That all said, there are still plenty of good looking stocks and sectors.
My main problem is that the best sectors are extended and in dire need of
a pullback. WORLD markets continue to do well but they are also very
extended and due for a pause.
Gary Kaltbaum
