Generals will hold Q1 gains through Friday

The energy stocks led yesterday, with the (OIH | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) +2.6% for the fifth straight up-day. The semis ((SMH | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) -1.9%)and brokers ((XBD | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) -1.4%). led on the downside. The TLT was -0.9%, selling down to 87.84 after the expected rate announcement. It closed at 87.93. The SPX had a spike down from the 1305.08 2:15 PM bar to a 1291.84 intraday low, closing at 1293.23, -0.6%. The Dow was -0.5% to 11,155 and the QQQQ -0.4% to 41.14. NYSE volume did not expand that much to 1.52 billion shares, but the Volume ratio was 29 and breadth -936.

The futures were hit on the rate announcement and the knife decline triggered sell programs, which is just what the "attackers" wanted. It wasn't the Generals telling their brokers to sell stocks at the market because of an expected Fed announcement. I would like to see the audit trail on the futures sales. The market can be manipulated at certain times by major program trading and/or hedge funds by using the futures to influence trades in the cash markets. The regulators just look the other way and avoid enforcing the rules in place protecting against this kind of activity.  I would love to have one of those empty suits challenge me on this. Prior to 2:15 PM, there were some excellent advances in trades in the stocks that you would expect to get a push into the end of Q1, but they faded with the Fed action. The major indices traded in a narrow range prior to 2:15 PM so wasn't much there, but if there is early weakness today, a contra move to the upside is most likely. The Generals wont let the quarter's gains slip too much the next three days.

Have a good trading day,

Kevin Haggerty