MidnightTrader Earnings Play: BMC Software

BMC Software (BMC | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) is scheduled to release Q4 earnings after the bell tonight. The average of analysts' estimates collected by Thomson Financial is for a profit of $0.51 per share on revenue of $460.3 million.

BMC is one to watch for its near-term share performance pattern. The issue is evenly split with its share performance over the long run, widening its after-hours earnings-driven movement in the following regular session for six quarters and narrowing its post-earnings move six times. The near-term performance favors a narrowing trend, however, in three of the most recent four quarters.

On Feb. 7, 2008, the stock gained 4% during evening hours after the company beat with Q3 results and guided mostly above the Street. The stock reversed to close down 1.8% the next day.

On Nov. 6, 2007, the stock gained 3.1% during evening trading after BMC topped Q2 estimates and guided for FY 2008 EPS above forecasts and Q3 results in line. The stock trimmed its gain to 1.1% the next day.

On Aug. 6, 2007, BMC gained 4.1% in night trade after topping Q1 estimates. Shares added to those gains the next day to end the regular session up 7%.

On May 29, 2007, BMC shed 1.2% in after-hours trade after meeting on Q4 earnings but coming in shy on revenue. The stock turned from the red the following day, ending the May 30 regular session up 0.7%.

On Feb. 8, 2007, BMC dropped 5.2% despite topping Q3 estimates. Shares fell even further the next day, ending the regular session down 6.6%.

Brooks McFeely is widely regarded as the leading expert on extended-hours trading. He is a Managing Partner for Brochet Capital Partners, LP and the founder of Midnight Trader, Inc. (www.midnighttrader.com), the leading provider of pre-market and after-hours trading analysis and news to retail and institutional investors.