Midnight Trader Earnings Play: Dell

Dell (DELL | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating) is due with its Q1 results after the bell tonight, and analysts polled by Thomson First Call are expecting the company to report a profit of $0.34 per share on revenue of $15.68 billion.

In looking back at DELL's historical session-to-session performance, we've found the stock has outpaced its after-hours moves in next-day regular session trade following nine of its last 17 earnings events. In the near-term, the stock is mixed, cutting back its evening performance in next-day trade twice and widening two times in the four most recent quarters.

On Feb. 28, 2008, DELL declined 1.2% in after-hours trade after reporting Q4 results below expectations. The stock added to its downside in the Feb. 29 regular session, losing 4.7% by the close.

On Nov. 29, 2007, the stock fell 9.8% during evening hours after the company tops the Q3 sales estimate but misses by a penny with EPS. The stock fell 12.8% the next day.

On Aug. 30, 2007, DELL edged up 0.4% after topping Q2 expectations. However, shares gave back those gains and a little more the next day. It closed the regular session down 0.7%.

On May 31, 2007, DELL jumped 5.3% in night trade after beating Q1 expectations and announcing job cuts. However, shares couldn’t hold onto that momentum and cut back its gains the next day. Shares ended the regular session up 1.4%.

On March 1, 2007, the stock fell 1.8% in the evening session after reporting lower than expected revenue but beating on EPS. Shares nosed up 0.7% the next day.

Brooks McFeely is widely regarded as the leading expert on extended-hours trading. He is a Managing Partner for Brochet Capital Partners, LP and the founder of Midnight Trader, Inc. (www.midnighttrader.com), the leading provider of pre-market and after-hours trading analysis and news to retail and institutional investors.